Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 2.067049 2.173938 2.288347 2.420842 2.571284 2.738339 2.940130
2025-06-08 1.932157 2.067424 2.218046 2.400615 2.619463 2.878407 3.216437
2025-06-15 1.859578 2.015703 2.194895 2.420153 2.702747 3.056587 3.554307
2025-06-22 1.757424 1.919156 2.108079 2.350798 2.664021 3.070888 3.673509
2025-06-29 1.703459 1.874570 2.078159 2.345895 2.702315 3.185183 3.946446
2025-07-06 1.638172 1.811791 2.020887 2.300207 2.680109 3.210472 4.086822
2025-07-13 1.615177 1.798816 2.023756 2.331025 2.762229 3.392189 4.514595
2025-07-20 1.606442 1.802357 2.046744 2.388871 2.886368 3.653560 5.160268
2025-07-27 1.576488 1.777248 2.030682 2.391338 2.928748 3.790297 5.615731
2025-08-03 1.549610 1.754643 2.016335 2.394514 2.971397 3.932648 6.141878
2025-08-10 1.502287 1.703803 1.962051 2.337395 2.915048 3.892099 6.213623
2025-08-17 1.474260 1.677088 1.939011 2.323859 2.926321 3.975740 6.646198
2025-08-24 1.445962 1.650093 1.915817 2.310769 2.940488 4.073687 7.202270
2025-08-31 1.418525 1.623237 1.891589 2.294528 2.947660 4.158949 7.787231
2025-09-07 1.404855 1.613999 1.890967 2.313125 3.014554 4.377863 9.080057
2025-09-14 1.365216 1.568874 1.838763 2.250547 2.935897 4.272332 8.931060
2025-09-21 1.346655 1.551572 1.824951 2.246245 2.959322 4.396760 10.013289
2025-09-28 1.317131 1.518719 1.788193 2.204704 2.913265 4.356240 10.211323
2025-10-05 1.311068 1.517410 1.795932 2.232810 2.995155 4.631647 12.914975
2025-10-12 1.312600 1.526362 1.818472 2.285419 3.128083 5.075672 20.173846
2025-10-19 1.299228 1.514374 1.810199 2.287664 3.164551 5.275311 28.517512
2025-10-26 1.286673 1.503161 1.802623 2.290550 3.202439 5.491818 51.191141
2025-11-02 1.259252 1.470705 1.762981 2.238630 3.125598 5.340295 45.245620